United States New Home Sales November 2022 Data 1963-2021 Historical
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However, some factors may influence the market's pace or whether it favors buyers or sellers. Higher mortgage rates and recession fears have cooled housing markets from early spring highs. The housing market saw an incredible year last year, with record-low interest rates, the strongest yearly growth in single-family values and rentals, a generational low in foreclosure rates, and the highest number of home sales in 15 years. As numerous buyers battled for the winning bid, house sellers witnessed a market in which their properties sold rapidly and frequently for prices over the listing price. Upscale homes in high-growth markets, however, will provide more opportunities for buyers. This downward revision is due in large part to expectations for more declines in home sales volume in the coming months.
As work-from-home becomes increasingly popular, it is anticipated that the housing market will continue to be undersupplied and that migration to lower-cost areas will continue to rise. This is significant since most booming cities have a major housing shortage due to a previous inflow of population. According to Freddie Mac, there are currently 18 percent more persons aged 25 to 34 than there were in 2006. This represents an increase of 6.6 million prospective first-time homeowners, from 39.5 million in 2006 to 46.1 million today.
When Will the Home Prices Fall?
Realtor.com forecasts a 5.4% increase, the National Association of Realtors forecasts a 1.2% increase, and Home.LLC forecasts a 4% increase. Among the regions that are anticipated to have losses in value over the coming year are those that have experienced some of the largest increases in property values over the past year. Only one market in Texas is forecasted to see year-over-year house price growth of 10% or greater. The historically low mortgage rates fueled an increase in demand, particularly among millennials. However, they are running into a shortage of available housing and now have to face higher rates of close to 6%. Many buyers are still in hope of finding a home that fits their budget and needs.
Selling sentiment declined and listing activity followed, with newly listed homes declining by 13.4% on a year-over-year basis. The net share of respondents saying now is a good time to sell increased by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month but decreased by 29 percentage points compared to last year. The median list price grew by 11.0% in November and is decelerating from higher growth rates in recent months. While the outright share of cash-buying is slightly lower in the top markets, it has been growing faster, on average, than in the top 100 markets.
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Hispanic homebuyers have been more active in the housing market in recent periods, seeing greater growth in home purchases than their counterparts. The net share of respondents saying now is a good time to sell decreased by 8 percentage points compared to the previous month and by 26 percentage points compared to last year. Sellers are less active than last year, as newly listed homes declined by 17.2% on a year-over-year basis.
Increases in inventory drove price reductions in November as supply is starting to outpace demand. Of the 50 largest metro areas, the metros with larger increases in active inventory also saw the highest growth in the share of price reductions over the past year. Ranking is based on the combined yearly percentage growth in both home sales and prices expected in 2023 among the top 100 largest markets in the country per Realtor.com’s metro level housing forecast. Increasing interest rates will almost certainly have a greater impact on the national housing market in 2022 than any other factor. While sellers remain in an advantageous position, price stability and the continuation of competitive interest rates may provide some much-needed relief to buyers this year. Housing supply is and will likely remain a challenge for some time as labor and material shortages, as well as general supply chain issues, delay new construction.
August 2022 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report
"Whether that’s just fewer home sales, less real estate activity or even less borrowing for home purchases." Honolulu is one such city where activity has cooled dramatically compared to a year ago. Luxury prices were flat on the Big Island in 2018 and million-dollar-plus home sales dropped nearly 20%, according to Realtor. Luxury prices also hit new heights in places like Nashville, Miami, other parts of Florida and north Dallas. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that Group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
This was up from the near-steady trend that prevailed before the pandemic as workplace flexibility soared. In 2022, even though many workers are returning to offices, cross-market shopping has climbed to new heights, accounting for nearly 61% of page views in the third quarter. Our second quarter study offers a revealing explanation for the trend, especially among shoppers in the Northeast and West. More than 7 in 10 cross-market shoppers from these regions were looking at homes in areas 10% or more cheaper than their current location. Relocating may not be an option for all home shoppers, but for those with the flexibility, 2023 may be a time to explore. The government-sponsored enterprise forecasts that for every one percentage point increase in mortgage rates, house sales would decrease by around five percent, and price growth will slow by four to six percentage points.
Housing Market Predictions
The housing market has gone through some significant swings since the start of the pandemic in 2020. Despite a temporary lull in early 2020, the market rebounded hotter than ever in 2021. As we’ve rolled into 2022, the housing rush is simmering down just a little but not much. The median home price in January 2022 was $350,300, as compared to $356,700 from August 2021, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Tenants with leases coming up for renewal should realize that they have greater leverage to negotiate this year and should look around at comparable rentals in the area before making a decision. Shrank by 13.4% compared to the previous year in August and the trend worsened from -2.8% in July. Late summer 2022 with sellers more likely to accept buyer friendly concessions and sell for below asking price (31%). As a Premium user you get access to background information and details about the release of this statistic.
The share of homes having their price reduced grew from 11.0% last September to 19.5% this year. The share is now above 2017 and 2019 levels but still below the share of price reductions in September 2018 (21.2%). The markets which reported the highest year-over-year growth in newly listed homes included Southern markets such as Nashville (+19.6%), Tampa (+9.2%) and Dallas (+9.1%).
The index had a reading of 108.3 in August 2022, which is around one-seventh of what it had been in 2006. Because there aren't as many options on the housing market, a lot of people in the United States are having a hard time finding the house of their dreams. The higher the index is, the more options there are for obtaining mortgage finance. As the housing market heated up, mortgage loans became more available, and then in 2006, the index surpassed 850.
Large western metros, while not the lowest ranking for price growth, have seen the greatest price deceleration since this spring. Western metros had the largest average growth rate of 16.6% in April, and have since fallen to tie the Northeast for third place among regions with a growth rate of 7.9%. Large western metros also saw the greatest increase in the share of price reductions (+16.2 percentage points), followed by southern metros (+10.4 percentage points). No western metros made our list of hottest markets in August, the first time this has happened in August in our data’s history. Homes in Phoenix (+30.9 percentage points), Austin (+24.8 percentage points), and Las Vegas (+24.4 percentage points) showed the greatest growth in the share of homes with price reductions compared to last year.
The net share of respondents saying now is a good time to sell decreased by 8 percentage points compared to last month and by 26 percentage points compared to the previous year. The total number of unsold homes nationwide—a metric that includes both active listings and listings in various stages of the selling process that are not yet sold—increased by only 3.0% year-over-year. Growth accelerated from last month’s 0.5% growth rate but remains low because the count of pending listings and newly listed homes fell further on a year-over-year basis. The move toward affordability will continue in 2023, as high prices and mortgage rates drive buyers to find lower-priced homes.
These markets are then ranked by combined forecasted growth in home prices and sales. In cases of a tie, forecasted year-over-year sales growth was used as a tiebreaker. This is a far cry from the dire situation in the not too distant past, in the run up to the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble. Interest rates were very low at that time, making credit cheap and abundantly available.
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